Without such fundamental ingredient, it is unlikely that a stateless currency can become the world’s top monetary standard. However, it is possible to assess the prospects of plausible scenarios. Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. is an international intelligence publication and consultancy with its main office located in Toronto, Canada. This NPR will aim to build confidence among NPT stakeholders, essentially Geopoliticalmonitor.com Submissions will be assessed on the basis of how well they adhere to the formats outlined below. It conveys information that reflects the basic components of a place… When it comes to geopolitics, the key is to build a forecast by first noting the obvious. We provide research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs. The recent proliferation of cryptocurrencies – a product of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – is seen by some as a game-changer that has given credence to the idea that, at some point, one of them could eventually become the new dominant global currency. In order to envisage them, it is essential to highlight that nature abhors power voids. Thus, in this case the corresponding projections need to transcend the disciplinary scope of traditional economic science. Besides, it must not be forgotten that even though the greenback is a fiat currency, it is backed by US power projection capabilities, including a formidable nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, appearances can be deceiving. Meanwhile, geopolitical threats produced large and protracted recessionary effects as well as a decline in stock prices. While we review all submissions, not every submission will be published. However, the prospects of an eventual restoration of a gold standard are being discussed nowadays. Third Scenario: Geo-Financial Bipolarity or Multipolarity. Intelligence reports delivered right to your inbox, Analysis from our global network of experts. Feedspot has over 100k Influential Bloggers database classified in more than 1500 niche categories. Moreover, it must be pointed out that the conditions mentioned in these scenarios are not necessarily mutually exclusive. BIRN. Actually, elements of them can co-exist. When it comes to assessing what to expect in the esoteric realm where geopolitics meets finance, there is no crystal ball. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. That usually means that hegemonic reserve currencies are issued by the most powerful states. Blogger Outreach or Influencer Marketing. Blogger Outreach or Influencer Marketing. It was also a process that played a role in the breakdown of society and order that ended up in a stark civilizational regression. In unserem NEWS-BLOG finden Sie Recherchen, Analysen und Berichte rund um die Themen Geopolitik, Ökonomie, Business, Medien, Geld und Kapitalschutz, Recht und Steuern. As a matter of statecraft, China has been assertively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, also known as renminbi, a measure intended to enhance Chinese national power in the realm of finance. Our team of experts provide unique and insightful perspectives on situations and events that have a substantive impact on business, political, military and economic affairs. The most feasible candidate would be something called “Special Drawing Rights,” an artificial asset created as a unit of account by the International Monetary Fund, and whose value is tied to a basket of several currencies. In the grand scheme of things, the so called ‘demonetization’ of gold – the quintessential monetary substance throughout history – is a fairly recent development. Milos Damnjanovic. Besides, the redefinition of certain financial dynamics as issues that are being dealt with in terms of high strategy because of their ramifications in the field of international and national security is also a phenomenon that cannot be overlooked. Accordingly, they are often the victims of their own success. This is the most common type of submission we receive at Geopoliticalmonitor.com, as it tends to … The United States is still the world’s most powerful national state. THE OBAMA NUCLEAR POLICY REVIEW The Obama administration is well aware of the importance of the 2010 NPT review conference, and as such it has been conducting its Nuclear Policy Review (NPR) very carefully. Brand Monitoring. Their implementation would demand a substantial degree of technical and political collaboration – something that for the time being appears elusive. Hence, the rise of the renminbi is a sign of China’s increasing economic strength. Continuously monitor for the geopolitical risks that matter most — from threats in specific regions to mentions tied to dangerous events. Additionally, the ultimate fate of the dollar hegemony depends on foreigners and their willing to underwrite such an “exorbitant privilege” in an interdependent world. This configuration would mean the bifurcation of the current financial and monetary order into two or more competing systems, each with its own dominant currency, gold reserves, financial institutions, banking entities and payments mechanisms. The scenarios described and examined above illustrate that there are several possible outcomes, all of them heavily shaped by complex geopolitical, economic, financial, and even technological realities. Zac and Nick discuss what the United States achieved in Afghanistan and how regional interests are primed to reassert themselves once the US military leaves. After all, being the issuer of the world’s top reserve currency is a privilege that entails important costs, including the responsibility to act as a senior military provider of international security. Only time will tell if such plans go as expected, especially considering that this project has sparked heated debates about its implications for national security, personal privacy and the challenges it poses in terms of crafting a monetary policy related to currencies issued by national states with diverging geopolitical and economic interests. An atlas is a geopolitical cheat sheet. But governing won’t be easy for the winner. Hence, any great power that is interested in crippling the hegemonic role of the greenback needs to carefully calculate the repercussions associated with the geopolitical burden that comes with being the issuer of the world’s dominant currency. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. In other words, “sinking” the greenback might – either directly or indirectly – trigger dire financial, economic, and fiscal dislocations that could engulf the attackers themselves. Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique. The American dollar is undeniably the lifeblood of trade, banking, business and finance all over the world. The latest version of a global gold standard was dismantled when President Nixon refused to deliver gold in exchange for dollars, as was agreed when the Bretton Woods framework was forged through multilateral negotiations. In this context, even covert operations – which are often undertaken in order to derail or at least to delay structural trends – constitute a tool that can be used to protect the supremacy of the greenback in the coming decades. OR Purchase a subscription to Geopolitical Futures and recieve a FREE copy of The World Explained in Maps. Finally, one of the main consequences of this would be pronounced regionalization. In review, Geopolitics Alert publishes news and opinions related to USA conflicts around the world from a non-interventionist perspective. This would reflect the emergence of multiple geopolitical and economic nerve centers. By Joshua Ball Last updated Jun 7, 2019. Hence, it seems that at least the first generation of cryptocurrencies will only act as a medium of exchange in very specific markets, including some of the deepest corners of the so-called “dark web.”. Yet, Washington is not exactly powerless and it is logical to assume that it will not relinquish such an asset without a fight. April 1, 2021 06:52. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. Moreover, the fact that monetary reserves held by central banks are mostly denominated in US dollars provides a disincentive against attacks on the US currency. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. Even though it can be enduring, the global monetary order needs to be understood as a process that is always in flux. Hence, exploring the future of monetary hegemony is a challenging task that requires considering both geopolitical and financial factors. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers … Western Balkans Stability Monitor; Reviews . In fact, it has used many tools – including institutional frameworks, bilateral trade, the development of financial hubs, business platforms and investment agreements – in order to advance its international position and projection. Indeed, the first draft of the NPR has already been rejected for not being ‘transformational’ enough [11]. Strategic forecasting is not an exact science, especially when it involves phenomena whose behavior is shaped by several variables. Other factors worth taking into account are the intrinsic volatile nature of contemporary financial markets – which are vulnerable to several kinds of disruptions – the systemic accumulation of unpayable debts, and the implementation of monetary policies that, far from correcting structural imbalances, are actually deepening them. Vietnam Economy Well Positioned for Post-COVID Surge | Geopolitical Monitor Vietnam is one of few nations expecting positive GDP growth in 2020. GEOPOLITICAL.BIZ. In other words, the current monetary hegemony would be followed by a more fragmentary structure. geopolitical threats than by actual events, such as the start of a war or imposition of sanctions. Accordingly, this would likely mean an increased financial Lebensraum for currencies like the euro, the yuan and the pound sterling, amongst others. As seasoned financial experts explain, financial and monetary crises are a lot like nuclear chain reactions. In the early part of 2020, the Center for #Preventive #Action named 26 conflicts to its #Global #Conflict #Tracker that were of particular concern to the United States ( #US ). In this scenario, perhaps the golden rule would apply. Fourth Scenario: Rise of a Multilateral Currency. However, that does not mean that governments will not be able create cryptocurrencies as digital twins of their own paper money. Nikola writes for several publications such us Geopolitical Monitor, Global Security Review, Global Comment and International Policy Digest, among others. Given its apt handling of COVID-19 and ongoing US-China tensions, the country is now well placed to lead Southeast Asia’s economic recovery. This would entail a return to representative money. There are several alternative plausible scenarios that need to be examined. That would increase Chinese geoeconomic weight in commodity markets, the international flow of capital, institutional influence and national prestige. Likewise, even hypothetical contenders are rather feeble. Far from being static, it is continuously evolving. Palma is re-taken by security forces in Mozambique, Peruvians head to the polls, and Russian troops amass near the Ukrainian border. JUL 12, 2019; What a US-Iran War Would Look Like What a US-Iran War Would Look Like. Brand Monitoring. Foreign Support It is difficult to establish the degree and scope of external involvement in the Naxalite insurgency. Week in Review: Geopolitical Posturing in the Balkans. In fact, it looks like – more than ever before – strategic competition is unfolding in the field of finance. Second Scenario: Replacement by another National Currency. Geopolitical Monitor Geopolitical Monitor News 5.0 • 1 Rating; Listen on Apple Podcasts. We provide research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs. This is usually related to the development of formidable maritime power projection capabilities, a condition that is necessary in order to ensure the flow of international trade through secure sea lanes. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. It is even described as a “financial superpower.” Even if its position has been eroded by setbacks, imbalances, and weaknesses, it is foreseeable that the strength of the US dollar will not be matched anytime soon. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/why-consociationalism-…/. In other words, there is no such thing as a perpetual hegemony, either geopolitical or monetary. Share. However, in this case the dollar could still act as the reserve currency of one of these blocs. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. In fact, some analysts claim that the US dollar has been on life support since the global financial crisis that broke out more than ten years ago. Die Digitalisierung der Welt führt zu einer neuen Krypto-Ökonomie, die … Interestingly, Libra – the cryptocurrency Facebook intends to launch – would represent a multilateral currency, but one which is managed by a private company. Hence, they have been described as the monetary equivalent of Esperanto. Thus, this is by far the most ominous scenario. Moreover, the exchange rate of existing stateless cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) is so volatile that –instead of acting as reliable and stable stores of value – they operate like speculative assets. One way or another, the prospect of prolonged geopolitical and financial unipolarity is a profoundly ahistorical notion. So far, none of the cryptocurrencies that have been launched is issued by a central bank. This is hardly surprising after the sharp financial crisis that took place a decade ago. An abrupt monetary collapse can unleash widespread chaos derived from a widespread destruction of wealth. Middle East Gamechanger? After all, history provides countless examples that international financial governance and monetary affairs operate like mirrors that reflect the parallel correlation of geopolitical forces prevailing in the international system. Their currencies follow a similar trajectory. By Geopolitical Monitor By Alex Holstein* Over the last decade, and now against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has witnessed an alarming rise in instability. The recent China-Iran agreement presents Baghdad with a profound geopolitical choice: the United States or China? In other words, it paradoxically represents a self-defeating struggle. If gold reassumes a central role in worldwide financial markets as a result of a multilateral consensus negotiated amongst the great powers – this could happen in the aftermath of a new major financial crisis of international proportions – some players would evidently be better positioned than others. Centralize your search, alerting, and visualization to detect threats fast with real-time, location-based OSINT intelligence that is dynamically linked, categorized, and updated in every language from social media, the dark web , and more. Military, Politics, Economy, Energy Security, Environment, Commodities Geopolitical Analysis & Forecasting . For instance, they can only be used by states, but not yet by either companies or individuals. Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In the grand scheme of things, trying to freeze structural change is a demanding endeavor that requires vast amounts of military, economic, and political resources. By Geopolitical Monitor By Try Ananto Wicaksono As the world’s largest producer and consumer of palm oil, the palm oil industry has become an important part of Indonesia’s economy. At least for the time being, their critical mass lacks a strong gravitational pull. In Latin America, new forms of resistance as well as indigenous concepts of self-determination and autonomy started to question the standard understandings of space. Gauging the China-Iran Deal, Great Power Competition Comes to the Middle East: Iraq and the China-Iran Agreement, Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls, US-Philippine Alliance: Duterte Demands US ‘Pay’ to Salvage Troop Deal, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tantalum Supply & Demand, ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique, Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent. For instance, the fall of the Roman denarius was not only a key driver in the decline of the Roman Empire. Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent | Geopolitical Monitor If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. Therefore, there are reasonable doubts and uncertainty about the monetary reliability of the US dollar in the long run. Even if it is not entirely clear who or what will eventually inherit the dollar’s coveted position, the possibility of a transition towards a bipolar or multipolar monetary order is real. Global Security Review Defense & Security. Even though the dollar’s position still seems safe for the near future, the hypothetical rise of a parallel financial order anchored to gold as a monetary unit is a possibility that needs to be considered, especially when there are geopolitical incentives to diminish the dollar’s global dominance. A possibility that arises from this reasoning is the birth of a multilateral currency. Nevertheless, it is not clear what will happen once the American dollar is no longer the dominant currency. Therefore, China intends to challenge the US monetary hegemony, even if that means the creation of a system of parallel structures conceived to bypass the dollar. However, the adoption of SDRs as the new international reserve currency would have to face significant obstacles. In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. it must be borne in mind that sometimes countries sacrifice their legitimate economic interests for the sake of victory. It is too early to tell if gold can replace the US dollar at some point within the next few decades, but at least it is clear that the aureus metal’s singular attributes enhance its prospects. The Geopolitical Logic of Turkey’s Strategic Reorientation Turkey’s robust expeditionary capabilities derive from the build-up of its defense industry over the course of the past two decades, a transformation whose logic extends back into Turkey’s strategic reorientation beginning in the early post-Cold War period. Beijing regards the general atmosphere of global financial and monetary uncertainty as a window of opportunity to strengthen its currency and to downgrade the currency of its top strategic rival: the greenback. The power of empires inevitably declines after reaching their zenith. He is also a regular contributor to KJ Vids YouTube geopolitical channel where he writes video scripts on geopolitical issues. Moreover, the dollar’s position is severely compromised by irresponsible monetary policies – like endless quantitative easing – and a growing spiral of indebtedness, something that is eroding the confidence it entails, an attribute that used to be taken for granted. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. Plus, Moscow and Beijing know that the role of the dollar is one of the cornerstones of US national power, so it is hardly surprising that it is in their crosshairs. It is possible that the US dollar loses its privileged status without being replaced by a clear successor. Feedspot has over 100k Influential Bloggers database classified in more than 1500 niche categories. Moreover, it would prevent the structural distortions commonly associated with unipolar monetary hegemony. However, since the stakes are too great, it would be unwise to assume that the outcome will not be shaped by an increasing level of geopolitical tension. This sounds almost apocalyptic, but that does not make it impossible. In other words, they are not backed by the national power of any state. Its might is felt in the domains of military affairs, geopolitics, intelligence, industry, energy, science, culture and technology. It is therefore hard to anticipate with a high degree of accuracy what the future will bring regarding the present monetary hegemony. Listen on Apple Podcasts. First Scenario: Continued Supremacy of the US Dollar. Therefore, even though the current position of US dollar seems solid at a first glance, alternative prospects deserve to be taken into account, particularly in a context in which the greenback faces structural challenges and is being targeted by a myriad of Washington’s strategic rivals. We take a … For the US economy, actual events produced a small, but short-lived decline in economic activity with the stock market rising one month after the shock. Alternative uses of space can contradict the modern geopolitical imagination which is closely tied to the nation-state and its administrative, political and economic categories (Preciado Coronado & Uc 2010: 85). It could even be argued that the first shots have already been fired in this highly unconventional battle space. This could be through satellite or non-satellite-based ship monitoring systems with installed transponders in every fishing boat. In fact, an escalating geopolitical conflict fought in the financial sphere can provoke this very outcome, even if that is not what the contenders intended in the first place. Actually, there are noteworthy precedents. Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. Finally, another card that the US can play in case of dangerous geo-financial turmoil is to resort to its gold reserves in order to back the greenback with the yellow metal once again. Some analysts hold that an international monetary transition can be relatively peaceful and gradual. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. In other words, the players that control the largest gold holdings would have the chance to define the essential rules in the structural rearrangement of global financial governance. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers valuable opportunities for those interested in disabling the dollar’s supremacy, but without worrying about the disruption of financial stability. We » Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. For instance, the late Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips explained that, since gold is an asset whose value is determined by its natural scarcity, it promotes fiscal responsibility and sound monetary policies, which would limit the possibility of resorting to endless credit and perpetual debt – both closely associated to fiat money – in order to artificially inflate military budgets and, consequently, war expenditures. A remarkable precedent was the time when the Byzantine solidus and the Islamic dinar co-existed as international reserve currencies for several centuries during the Middle Ages. Situation Report (600-2,000 words) A situation report takes one pertinent geopolitical topic or issue and analyzes it from all possible angles. In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. Geopolitics Alert uses occasional moderate loaded words that favor the left such as: “ There’s a great deal to be said about Donald Trump’s pardon for criminal racist Joe Arpaio. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. If this is enabled, this will transmit speed, location, proximity, and a faster tracking measure by passers or the vessels in real-time. Geopoliticalmonitor.com. *This article was originally published on February 20, 2020.
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